cursed indicators

~$80B/yr revenue collected. ~$1.7T in farm bailouts, retaliatory damage, and consumer drag. Running deficit.

Each steel job preserved by 2018 tariffs cost American consumers roughly $900,000 annually.

Greenspan's off-the-books leading indicator. Men stop replacing underwear before they stop spending everywhere else.

Buffett's own metric. Above 100% = overvalued. Above 150% = 'playing with fire.' Currently: playing with something.

Leonard Lauder's 2001 theory: lipstick sales spike in downturns as affordable luxury. Holding up suspiciously well.

A coin created as a joke has a market cap exceeding the annual economic output of most UN member states.

The clock doesn't stop on weekends. Or recessions. Or speeches about fiscal responsibility.

In 1965 it was 21x. The ratio has since compounded faster than virtually any asset class available to median workers.

GLP-1 drug revenue growing 200%+ YoY. Simultaneously: Pepsi, Mondelez, and Conagra quietly revising guidance.

Multiple Federal Reserve branches published reports on this. A stadium tour as legitimate macroeconomic stimulus event.

George Taylor, 1926: skirts shorten in bull markets, lengthen in bears. Fall 2024 runways: midi and maxi. Make of that what you will.

An informal but persistent finding: companies that announce major McKinsey engagements underperform the index over the following 3 years.