The Hemline Index
George Taylor, 1926: skirts shorten in bull markets, lengthen in bears. Fall 2024 runways: midi and maxi. Make of that what you will.
George Taylor, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, proposed the Hemline Index in 1926, observing a correlation between skirt lengths and stock market performance across the 1910s and 1920s. The theory: in bull markets, women wear shorter skirts as an expression of confidence and prosperity; in downturns and recessions, hemlines drop toward modesty and thrift. The index is not statistically robust in rigorous academic testing, but it has a persistent cultural resonance. Fall 2024 and Spring 2025 runway consensus across New York, London, Milan, and Paris fashion weeks leaned heavily toward midi and maxi silhouettes.
Qualitative assessment of dominant hemline trends from major fashion week runway coverage. 'Bearish' signal corresponds to dominant midi/maxi length trends across a majority of major runway shows in a given season. 'Bullish' signal corresponds to dominant mini/micro trends. Encoded as +1 (bullish) and -1 (bearish) for sparkline visualization.