Trump Tariff P&L
~$80B/yr revenue collected. ~$1.7T in farm bailouts, retaliatory damage, and consumer drag. Running deficit.
The 2018 tariff regime was sold as a revenue-generating trade correction. On paper, it collected roughly $80 billion per year in import taxes. In practice, the downstream costs — farm aid packages to offset retaliatory agricultural tariffs, elevated consumer prices on steel-dependent goods, supply chain friction, and export retaliation losses — outpaced collections by a factor of more than twenty. The USDA's Market Facilitation Program alone disbursed over $28 billion to farmers impacted by Chinese counter-tariffs.
Net P&L calculated as tariff revenue minus direct farm bailout disbursements (USDA Market Facilitation Program), estimated consumer price impact (Tax Foundation CGE model), and modeled export retaliation losses (Peterson Institute). Does not include long-term supply chain restructuring costs or permanent trade relationship damage.